Overview of High-Reward Polymarket Strategies
- The goal is to find 100x low-risk high-reward Polymarket strategies using AI, and an example of a 100x trade is shown, where a 1% investment resulted in a 100x return 10s.
- The strategy used is a bit strange and involves trading on both the up and down sides of an asset, such as Bitcoin, with examples of trades that resulted in significant returns, including a 48x return 2m6s.
- The trades are confirmed using Cloud Code and Poly scans, which provide proof of the trades and their outcomes, allowing for analysis and verification of the results 2m6s.
AI Analysis and Verification of Trades
- The idea is to use AI coding agents like Codex to analyze these trades, understand what happened, and turn them into repeatable strategies, by pasting the trade data into Codex and asking it to investigate and explain the trade 4m42s.
- Codex is used to research and explain the trade, by looking at the hashes, wallets, and other data related to the trade, and it provides a breakdown of the trade, including the purchase of both up and down shares, and the resulting profits 6m15s.
- The analysis reveals that the combined trade was profitable, with the down shares redeeming for $50, while the up shares paid zero, resulting in a significant return on investment 8m30s.
Unusual Trade Mechanics and Bot Behavior
- The scenario involves filling both sides of a trade on Polymarket, which seems strange because the fills were maker fills from the wallet, indicating that the orders were likely posted by a bot account and matched around the close, and this happened 1 second after the 5-minute window closed 10s.
- The strange part is how the cheap 0.02 orders were still fillable after the outcome was basically known, and the most likely explanation is that the bot had resting low bids on both sides that were swept by another taker during the close settlement delay 42s.
- If both sides are filled, the outcome is guaranteed to be positive, and the goal is to replicate this scenario by coming up with strategies that can take advantage of the close settlement delay, such as using AI tools like Codex to analyze data and find patterns 1m6s.
Exploration of Two-Sided Bidding Strategies
- One potential edge is to get paired exposure with up calls and down calls, ideally at a low price like 1 or 2 cents, and some possible strategies include two-sided cheap maker bids, post-close winner side snipe, and hybrid approaches 2m6s.
- The approach involves using chatbots and agents like Cloud Code and Codex to come up with and test new strategies, and one specific strategy is to look at new windows on Polymarket, which are created every 24 hours, and place orders 24 hours ahead of time 4m15s.
- This strategy involves targeting newly listed future windows, resting 1 cent or 50 conch shares bids on both sides, and using a cancel timing to manage the orders, with the goal of replicating the initial scenario and achieving a positive outcome 6m0s.
Implementation and Execution of Trading Strategies
- The dashboard is up and running with 105 orders placed, and the strategy involves preloading and looking at future orders, with the goal of filling up a fresh window by placing resting contracts or bids on both sides, 10s.
- The first strategy being tried involves placing a bid as quickly as possible in a new window, in the hopes of being the first on the list and getting filled first, with the possibility of a queue system in place, 10s.
- A second strategy has been developed in collaboration with Codex Cloud Code, which aims to time the exact window switch and place bids on both sides, up and down, exactly when the window switch occurs, 42s.
- The second strategy involves canceling the bids after 120 seconds to avoid paying for unfilled orders, as only filled orders incur a cost, and to minimize the risk of being taken advantage of by someone filling the bid just to get some money back, 2m6s.
Diversification and Asset Selection
- The bids are placed on multiple assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, in an effort to cover four windows and maximize potential returns, 2m6s.
- The strategy will be tested for a period of time to see how it works, with the goal of minimizing bad fills and maximizing wins, and the results will be monitored and analyzed to determine its effectiveness, 2m6s.
Testing and Evaluation of Strategies
- The discussion involves using data and ideas to compare and come up with different strategies to test out, making it a fun and learning experience, especially when using real money to test the strategies 10s.
- The strategies being tested have a fill rate and a win rate, but due to the rare event, there may not be any results available yet, with the possibility of sharing results in a future video 10s.
Risk Management and Automation Tools
- The use of cloud code, code X, and open code allows for the creation and testing of various strategies, with the current strategy being low-risk due to the cancellation of bids after 2 minutes 42s.
- The strategy involves pre-filling orders in the future, which only gets paid if they get filled, and these orders also get canceled after 2 minutes, allowing for a low-risk approach 2m6s.
Educational and Experiential Value of Testing
- The experience of testing strategies on Polymarket is considered more interesting and educational than just reading about it, as it provides hands-on experience with real money and allows for learning about market dynamics 42s.
- There is a Discord channel available for discussion and sharing of strategies related to AI automation, trading, and other related topics, with a link to be provided in the description 2m6s.
