Russia's War Against Ukraine
- Russia's large-scale war of aggression against Ukraine has lasted for two years, with an uncertain outcome.
- Ukraine is fighting for its existence as a state and a nation, while Russia sees it as an integral part of itself and its vision of a unique civilization with global ambitions.
- Russia's goals extend beyond Ukraine, aiming to reshape the European security order to its advantage.
Implications for Europe
- The European model of democracy and prosperity poses a threat to the Putin regime, motivating people in Russia to aspire for a similar future.
- Europe is already existentially involved in the war, as its interests clash with Russia's.
- Wars are contests of wills, and they end when one side can no longer sustain its course.
- The current plateau in the war will likely end in a collapse, with one side reaching the end of its resources first.
- Allowing territorial integrity, sovereignty, and international rules to be disregarded will have serious consequences for Europe and the world.
Europe's Response
- Europe should unite to support Ukraine and push Russia to change its course.
- Russia's strategy is unsustainable, and the West should convince Moscow to change course.
- Democracies have an advantage over autocracies in the long term, and Europe should prove this by supporting Ukraine.
- Confiscating Russia's frozen assets and taking the aggressor to international courts would send a lasting message and demonstrate Europe's staying power.
- Accelerating Ukraine's path towards NATO and the European Union would secure Ukraine and stabilize Europe.
Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric and Europe's Resolve
- Russia's irresponsible nuclear rhetoric aims to paralyze Europe with fear and buy time, but Europe should not be deterred.
- Russia is already on the attack and trying to push Europe from its homes, and the time to deal with it is now.
- A defeated and potentially destabilized Russia would be scarier than a victorious Russia.
- Russia has not changed its goals in this war, and any compromise would be a trap meant to unravel Europe's unity.
- Europe should learn from its own history and realize that sometimes things are as black and white as they seem.
