The college dream is falling apart | The Gray Area

Degradation of College Graduates' Jobs and Economic Realities

• College graduates who started their careers with creative roles have seen their jobs become more degraded over time, leading to frustration, as they are pulled onto sales floors and tasked with selling products like Macs and iPhones 10s.
• The concept of "inshitification" of work refers to the degradation of jobs, and this phenomenon is affecting college graduates who were promised better career prospects, but are now experiencing stagnating or dropping returns on their degrees 1m42s.
• Noam Shyber, a New York Times labor reporter, has written a book called "Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College Educated Working Class", which argues that college graduates' economic circumstances have pushed them to the left on economics over the last 20 years 2m6s.
• The book focuses on the generation of people who graduated from college beginning in 2008-2009, during and after the Great Recession, and who took on record amounts of debt to attend college, only to find that the return on their degree was not what they expected 4m9s.
• The gap between the expectations of college graduates and the reality they faced after graduation has been frustrating and radicalizing, with median wages for recent college grads still 10% below 2001-2012 levels as late as 2017-2018, and employment rates still down 6m10s.
• As a result, college graduates have become more supportive of socialism, more pro-union, and have organized more in the workplace, with their views on economics reshaped by their experiences, and are essentially revolting against American capitalism and the system they thought they had a right to 8m40s.

The Rise of the College-Educated Working Class and Political Shifts

• The revolt can be interpreted in both literal and less literal ways, with college graduates showing disillusionment with authority figures and institutions, such as big business and banks, and seeking change 10m20s.
• The revolt among workers is directed against their own employers, with many employees at companies like Starbucks, Apple, and Microsoft feeling frustrated due to stagnant wages and poor working conditions, leading them to unionize 10s.
• These workers, who are often college graduates, are not in the jobs they expected to have after college, and are instead working in roles such as baristas, retail workers, or video game testers, with many feeling the need to unionize due to their poor working conditions 42s.
• A comparison has been made between these workers and the "bohemian bourgeoisie" or "bobos" described in David Brooks' book "Bobos in Paradise", who were college graduates who liked artsy and funky things but were also upwardly mobile and supportive of free trade and balanced budgets 2m6s.
• However, the current generation of workers has "flipped the script" on this concept, with many embracing a more proletarian lifestyle and politics despite having some similarities to the bobos in terms of their aesthetics and sensibilities 2m6s.
• The term "probo" or "proletarian bourgeoisie" has been used to describe these workers, who have a similar bohemian aesthetic to the bobos but have a very different economic reality, with many struggling with debt and working in low-wage jobs 2m6s.

The 'Probo' Generation and the Starbucks Example

• One example of a "probo" is Teddy Hoffman, a character in the book who worked at Starbucks and was involved in an organizing campaign, and whose story is an example of the struggles and frustrations faced by many workers in this generation 4m22s.
• Hundreds of Starbucks stores were attempting to unionize, and in the fall of 2022, around 100 stores went on strike due to stalled bargaining, with the author visiting a store on the north side of Chicago where they met a worker named Teddy, who had graduated from Grinnell College in 2014 10s.
• Teddy had done incredibly well in college and had even received the prestigious Watson Fellowship, which allowed him to travel to countries like New Zealand and South Africa, but he ended up taking a job at Starbucks, which was unexpected given his background 2m6s.
• The job at Starbucks was presented as an aspirational middle-class opportunity, with the company referring to employees as "partners" and offering benefits like time off, which contributed to Teddy sticking around for a long time 4m42s.
• The author notes that companies like Starbucks, Apple, Trader Joe's, and REI offer jobs that are attractive to college graduates who may not have a clear plan, but these jobs have become degraded over time, with workers facing challenges despite the companies' attempts to present themselves as caring and supportive 6m15s.
• The story of Teddy and other workers in similar situations highlights the issue of the "college dream" falling apart, as highly educated individuals struggle to find stable and fulfilling careers, and instead end up in jobs that are not living up to their expectations 8m10s.

Changing Corporate Practices and Job Degradation

• Companies like Starbucks, Apple, and Trader Joe's used to offer generous benefits to their employees, such as stock options, healthcare, and educational benefits, which allowed regular employees to earn significant amounts of money, for example, when Starbucks went public in the 1990s, many baristas made tens of thousands of dollars 10s.
• However, around the time of the financial crisis, these companies became more austere, and benefits started to deteriorate, with Howard Schultz returning as CEO of Starbucks in 2008 to save the company from collapse, and implementing cost-cutting measures, including closing hundreds of stores and reducing expenses 2m6s.
• As a result, scheduling practices changed, with companies like Starbucks introducing scheduling on demand, which uses software to match labor hours with demand, resulting in less reliable hours for employees, who could be scheduled for a shift and then sent home early if demand was lower than expected 2m6s.
• A similar trend occurred at the Apple store, where the company shifted from a focus on knowledgeable and creative employees who were like "missionaries for the Apple religion" to a more efficient and cost-cutting approach under the leadership of Tim Cook, who took over in 2011 and emphasized the importance of minimizing inventory 4m30s.
• Under Tim Cook's leadership, Apple reduced its spending on labor, and the role of Apple store employees changed from being focused on teaching and creativity to a more traditional retail experience, with less emphasis on product demonstrations and customer education 4m30s.
• The labor force is shifting towards a contingent labor force, with more temporary and seasonal workers, and the role of "creatives" has evolved from one-on-one coaching sessions to group classes and eventually to sales floor work, with many experiencing job degradation and frustration 10s.

Impact of the Pandemic and Unionization Efforts

• The pandemic has accelerated the alienation felt by workers, such as Teddy, who was working at Starbucks, and has led to increased anxiety and depression, making it difficult for them to move on to new opportunities 42s.
• Teddy, a former celebrity on his college campus, has struggled to find a new job, despite having a large network of friends and a supportive mom, and has faced rejection letters from potential employers, leading him to feel stuck in his job at Starbucks 2m6s.
• Initially, Starbucks reacted generously to the pandemic, giving employees paid time off, but as time went on, the company's policies changed, and workers were brought back to work without adequate safety measures, leading to a stressful and politicized work environment 4m30s.
• The masking culture wars and politicization of COVID-19 safety measures have further exacerbated the difficulties faced by workers like Teddy, who are caught in the middle of the controversy and struggling to cope with the changing work environment 6m20s.
• The situation at Starbucks has become increasingly difficult for workers, with belligerent customers, no masking, and coworkers getting sick, leading Teddy and some other coworkers to form a union 10s.
• The unionization effort started in Buffalo in late 2021, with a group of workers trying to organize a handful of stores, but it quickly gained momentum, with hundreds of stores joining the effort by the late spring of 2022 2m6s.
• The unionization process was very organic, with people jumping on Zoom calls and sharing Google documents with steps to follow, and it gave young people who were disaffected with their jobs a sense of purpose and excitement 2m6s.
• For workers like Teddy, the unionization effort was not just about better pay or safer working conditions, but about finding meaning and purpose in their jobs, which had previously been dehumanizing and alienating 2m6s.

The Significance of Unionization in the Labor Movement

• The union drives at companies like Starbucks, Amazon, Apple, Trader Joe's, and REI are a big deal because they represent a significant shift in the labor movement, with huge companies that had previously had no union presence now being unionized for the first time 6m42s.
• The labor movement is gaining attention and being covered on the front pages of newspapers, which is a significant change from the past when labor issues were rarely discussed or covered in a way that resonated with people with power and political influence 8m30s.
• The interaction between college graduates and companies is a common occurrence, with many people buying products from and relating to these companies on an emotional level, often without realizing the labor practices behind them 10s.
• There has been a shift in how people perceive their jobs and identities, with a growing worker consciousness emerging, particularly among professionals such as doctors, who are now seeing themselves as workers and not just their job titles, as observed in the unionization of doctors in Minnesota and Wisconsin 2m6s.
• The unionization of doctors, with over 400 primary care doctors across Minnesota and Wisconsin joining a union, marks a significant change in the way highly trained professionals view their relationship with employers, with many realizing they are treated similarly to factory workers 2m6s.

Worker Consciousness and Political Realignment

• The growing awareness of labor issues and worker consciousness has inspired debates among online communities, with some arguing that the shift in political affiliations, such as doctors moving from Republican to Democratic parties, has also led to a change in their views on issues like unionization 42s.
• The discussion around the book has highlighted the complex interplay between ideology and economics in shaping people's worldviews, with some arguing that economic factors play a more significant role in the changing coalitions and political affiliations 42s.
• The concept of being "gay and organized" is seen as a great encapsulation of the question at hand, highlighting the intersection of ideology and economics 10s.
• The economic shift to the left is believed to have started in 2008, with the bottom falling out of the economy, and people's stances on cultural and economic issues began to change, as evident from a paper by political scientist Will Marble 2m6s.
• The shift to the left was relatively small in 2004, but it became more significant in 2008, with the global economy undergoing a major change, and employment rates for young college graduates, median wages, and unemployment rates not recovering until much later 2m6s.

Economic and Cultural Divides Between College Graduates and Non-Graduates

• The pandemic further exacerbated the economic issues, and there have been moments of collaboration and cooperation between the new white-collar working class and the traditional working class, such as the unionization effort at Amazon on Staten Island 4m9s.
• Despite these green shoots of cooperation, there are significant cultural divides between college graduates and non-graduates, as seen in the growing split in voting patterns, with college graduates voting differently from non-graduates, creating a "diploma divide" 6m38s.
• This divide has expanded since the Trump era, with significant differences in opinions on issues like trans rights, immigration, and crime, making it challenging for the two groups to work together and achieve their economic goals 6m38s.
• The ability of a politician to focus on economic issues in their campaign can help bridge the divide between college graduates and non-graduates, as seen in the example of Zoran Mandani's campaign in New York City, which centered on concrete economic issues like affordability, free buses, and public grocery stores 10s.
• Historically, college graduates were not typically socialists, but in recent years, they have shown overwhelming support for socialist candidates, such as Zoran Mandani, who received significant support from college graduates in his campaign 42s.
• Some issues, like Gaza, are often assumed to be divisive between college graduates and non-graduates, but polling data shows that college graduates under 35 and non-graduates under 35 have similar views on Israel and Palestine, with non-graduates possibly being slightly more sympathetic to Palestinians 2m6s.
• On issues like crime and immigration, college graduates have moved closer to the views of non-graduates, with many becoming more skeptical of immigration and more concerned about crime, showing a convergence of views between the two groups 2m6s.
• While there are still cultural issues that divide college graduates and non-graduates, such as sexual identity issues and trans rights, the size of the divide on certain issues may be overstated, and economic issues can be a unifying factor for the two groups 2m6s.

The Future of Work and the Threat of AI

• The future of college graduates is uncertain, with the rise of AI potentially replacing white-collar jobs and causing a "collective freakout" about the ability of college graduates to find employment, and the potential for AI to replace not only entry-level jobs but also more senior positions 6m30s.
• The labor market for recent college graduates has gotten substantially worse over the last five years, with the unemployment rate for this group exceeding the overall unemployment rate in the country, a trend that is not entirely related to AI 42s.
• There has been a slow and gradual decline in demand for jobs requiring college degrees, with automation and pre-gen AI contributing to this decline, as seen in the example of buyers for big retail brands whose jobs have been replaced by machines 2m6s.
• The adoption of AI in the white-collar world is leading to a reduction in entry-level hiring, with companies opting to hire fewer young people right out of college, who are relatively cheap but lack experience and knowledge 4m21s.
• The most significant concern is the potential impact of AI on mid-career professionals, who are more expensive and may struggle to adapt to new technologies, making them more vulnerable to job displacement 6m15s.
• The rise of AI could have significant implications for unions, potentially making unionization efforts in certain industries more challenging if jobs disappear, but also highlighting the importance of union fights in sectors like retail where jobs are harder to automate 9m30s.
• The writer strike in 2023 was a significant campaign that became contentious, with writers initially demanding better staffing in writer rooms in the streaming era, but later focusing on issues related to AI, including the potential for AI to replace human writers, and ultimately securing wins and protections on AI, such as not being forced to use AI and AI not being eligible for writer credits 10s.
• Jobs that involve human interactions and social skills are likely to be safer from automation by AI, whereas jobs that can be mediated through a computer may be more susceptible to being replaced by AI, which could lead to a transition to fields that are less susceptible to automation 2m6s.
• Certain professions, such as podcasters, may be safer from automation, but it is not a guarantee, as technology can already create podcasts from academic articles, and while they may be safer than software engineers, it is not a definitive prediction 4m30s.

Historical Context of Labor Movements and Unionization

• The concept of radicalization and mobilization of the working class, as discussed in early communist literature, such as Marx, did not entirely come to fruition, as living standards improved in market economies, but there have been surges in radicalization and unionization, such as in the 1930s, which saw a rapid expansion of union membership 6m40s.
• The history of unionization shows that it is possible for significant changes to occur, with union membership expanding rapidly in the 1930s and reaching a peak of about a third of the workforce by the early 1950s, which suggests that the current situation could be different and potentially lead to increased radicalization and unionization 8m20s.
• The formation of unionized unions by millions of workers in poor working conditions and low wages led to a change in the terms of the arrangement between workers and labor, although it did not overthrow capitalism 10s.
• Post World War II, a reimagining of the compact between workers and labor occurred, with moments such as the Treaty of Detroit, where big automakers decided to give workers health care, benefits, and raise wages over time, creating a grand bargain that held for many decades 42s.
• This grand bargain led to the growth of a professional managerial class, including people in middle management, consulting, and law jobs, who had a great living and livelihood in the market economy 1m6s.
• As jobs are cannibalized and the relationship between management and labor becomes more confrontational, with management trying to produce the most at the cheapest cost, a backlash is likely to occur, with AI being at the front lines of this struggle 2m6s.
• Labor law makes it difficult to form unions, and although about 70% of the country approves of unions, only about 10% are in unions, making mass organization and unionization unlikely, but tensions are likely to flare up in various ways, including the political arena 3m10s.

Labor Unrest and the Path Forward

• The increase in tensions is already visible, with quarterly town hall meetings and all-hands meetings becoming more locked down, with screened questions and restricted participation, indicating a rise in labor unrest 4m20s.
• The prediction is that the country is heading towards labor unrest similar to that of the 1930s, with radicalization and ferocity, especially if job loss predictions due to AI come true, and even if it's a steady erosion of employment, it will have a significant impact on college grads who feel a sense of agency and participation in the political system 6m0s.
• The current generation has various methods to express themselves and make their voices heard, such as going online, attending rallies and protests, and voting, which will likely lead to the political system being aware of their concerns when they feel vulnerable or threatened 10s.
• There is a sense of impending unrest due to the vulnerability and potential danger to the livelihood of this group, which may result in significant reactions and actions being taken 42s.

Conclusion and Call to Action

• The conversation has come to a close, with an invitation for viewers to comment on their thoughts and consider supporting the journalism by becoming a member of the Vox community on Patreon at patreon.com/vox 2m6s.