Everyone’s an expert now | The Gray Area

The Internet and Confirmation Bias

• The internet community is structured around individuals who are surrounded by people who agree with them, creating an environment where algorithms prioritize confirmation over diverse perspectives, and this phenomenon is exemplified by the term "NPCs" (non-player characters) used by some online personalities, such as Elon Musk, to refer to other human beings 10s.
• Tom Nichols, a staff writer at The Atlantic and professor emeritus of national security affairs at the US Naval War College, wrote the book "The Death of Expertise" in 2017, arguing that there is a growing contempt for knowledge and expertise alongside a culture of narcissism, which has led to a political system that is becoming increasingly flawed 2m6s.
• Nichols initially wrote about the death of expertise in a 2013 blog post, where he expressed frustration with people arguing with experts and lecturing them about their own area of expertise, citing personal experiences as a Russia expert being told by a young person that he didn't understand Russia 4m30s.
• Nichols believes that his book correctly identified the social phenomenon of people rejecting expertise, but he underestimated the extent to which this trend would become a fundamental plank of a major American political party's platform, leading to the rejection of expertise in significant areas, such as health and human services 6m40s.

The Death of Expertise and Political Consequences

• Despite the worsening situation, Nichols remains somewhat optimistic, suggesting that people ultimately rely on expertise in their daily lives, and the issue is more about political posturing against expertise rather than an actual death of expertise 10m50s.
• The current political landscape has become a phenomenon where individuals who argue with those in power are labeled as elitist and anti-American, which is extremely dangerous, and this trend is partly due to the blurring of lines between cause and effect in politics, making it difficult for people to understand the consequences of certain policies 10s.
• The relationship between political decisions and their effects on everyday life, such as the impact of tariffs on local grocery store prices, is not always clear, but there are direct consequences, like the outbreaks of diseases such as measles and whooping cough, which can be linked to the spread of misinformation by individuals like RFK 2m6s.

The Role of Social Media and Misinformation

• People's desire for a sense of control and empowerment in a complex world has led them to seek simple and clear solutions, often provided by self-proclaimed experts like Bobby Kennedy, who promote unproven and potentially harmful ideas, rather than listening to established experts and doctors 4m30s.
• The rise of social media and the resulting feelings of loneliness have contributed to the warping effect of people joining communities of anti-expert cranks, which provide a sense of community and connection, and this phenomenon was underestimated in the initial analysis of the issue 8m40s.
• The evolution of skepticism about elites into outright contempt for competence and expertise is a complex issue, but it is partly due to the response to a modern, highly advanced, and technologically adept society, where people have begun to believe that everyone can be an expert at everything and that nothing is hard to do 12m20s.
• The high level of technological advancement and prosperity has contributed to the rejection of expertise, as people have become accustomed to a world where things just work, and this has led to a lack of appreciation for the value of established expertise and the dangers of promoting unproven ideas 15m10s.

Technological Advancement and Entitlement

• The reliability of modern cars has improved significantly, with even the cheapest cars being remarkably reliable, which frees up mental space to think about other things, and this phenomenon is related to the concept of hedonic adaptation, where people take their current level of comfort for granted and consider anything below that as a failure 10s.
• Hedonic adaptation leads people to have high expectations and consider any minor issue as a major problem, and this is evident in the way people react to small setbacks, such as a 2% car loan being considered a terrible injury 2m6s.
• The current state of affairs, where people have the luxury to complain about minor issues, is not a result of policy failure, but rather a natural consequence of accumulated privilege, which produces entitlement and stupidity, and can be described as decadence 4m42s.
• The lack of appreciation for the efforts of experts, such as city planners, politicians, and engineers, who work together to provide basic necessities like clean water, is a result of people taking things for granted and being spoiled by their privileged lives 6m15s.

American Independence and Rejection of Authority

• The tendency to dismiss authority and expertise is a global phenomenon, but it has a unique aspect in America, where the national credo is centered around independence and autonomy, with people often saying "you're not the boss of me" and resisting the idea of being told what to do 10m0s.
• The resistance to learning and the dismissal of authority are deeply rooted in American culture, and it is evident in the way people think they can do a better job than experts, such as governors or presidents, without realizing the complexity and difficulty of these roles 12m0s.
• The concept of being a fully empowered individual has led to a rejection of expertise, as people no longer want to be told what to do, which is a characteristic often associated with American culture, and this mindset has been exacerbated by the internet 10s.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect and the Internet

• The Dunning-Kruger effect, a psychological phenomenon where people overestimate their knowledge or competence, has been amplified by the internet, allowing individuals to believe they know more than they actually do and become resistant to being corrected 2m6s.
• In the past, if someone expressed a misguided opinion in a social setting, such as a bar, they would be quickly corrected by others, but the internet provides a platform where people can express any opinion and find others who will validate their beliefs, regardless of how misguided they may be 4m30s.
• The internet has enabled individuals with fringe beliefs to connect with like-minded people across the country, creating a sense of community and validation for their ideas, even if they are based on conspiracy theories or pseudoscience 6m20s.
• The loss of community and the rise of online interactions have contributed to the spread of misinformation and the erosion of critical thinking, as people are no longer held accountable for their beliefs and opinions by those around them 8m40s.

The Flawed Concept of Online Community

• The internet's business model has created a virtual space where people can find a semblance of community, but it is often based on superficial connections and a shared interest in conspiratorial or misguided ideas, rather than meaningful relationships and a genuine sense of community 10m50s.
• The concept of community on the internet is flawed, as it creates a sense of community that is centered around the individual, surrounded by people who agree with them, rather than a diverse group of people with differing opinions, like a local bar or coffee house, where people may not all think the same thing 10s.
• The internet algorithm contributes to this flawed community by surrounding individuals with people who say "yes, you're right," and referring to others as "non-player characters" (NPCs), a term from the gaming world, which reduces human beings to mere props 2m6s.

The Crisis of Trust in Institutions

• The collapse of trust in institutions and authority is an existential crisis for society, as a large and complicated society cannot function without a sufficient level of trust, and the loss of basic facts, logical arguments, and evidence-based decision making threatens civilization 4m30s.
• The scientific method and general rules for accepting evidence have been lost, and people have reverted to a childlike insistence that their thoughts are true, and anyone who disagrees is calling them stupid, which is a threat to civilization 6m20s.
• The problem is not just with the public, but also with the ruling class, which has failed time and again, and experts who have failed in various ways, including failing to engage with the public in a normal and accessible way 10m30s.
• Public intellectuals and experts need to engage with the public like normal people, talk like normal people, and return the privilege they claim as experts back to society, as their client is ultimately society 14m0s.

Experts and Their Relationship with the Public

• Experts sometimes struggle to communicate with the public as fellow citizens, which can be uncomfortable because it requires speaking truth to the public, not just to those in power 10s.
• Professors can be poor spokespeople for their subject area because they may not be able to relate to the general public, and experts often hide their mistakes and try to cover them up, which can lead to a lack of trust 1m6s.
• The replicability crisis in science is a significant problem, and experts in fields like political science face challenges in reproducing results, as they cannot rerun historical events like the Russian Revolution or World War I 2m6s.
• When the public views political outcomes as the failure of expertise, it can lead to a lack of trust in experts, but this is often misguided, as politicians do not always take expert advice, and experts are not always to blame for bad decisions 3m42s.
• Historical events like Vietnam and Watergate are often cited as examples of the failure of expertise, but in the case of Vietnam, experts were actually pushed aside by generically smart individuals who did not need specialized knowledge 5m10s.
• The idea that experts are idiots is not always fair, as experts are human beings who can make mistakes, but policies that do not work out as planned are not necessarily a failure of expertise 7m30s.

The Contributions of Experts to Society

• Experts have made significant contributions to society, including the creation of NATO, global peace and prosperity, and the reduction of nuclear weapons, which have led to a high standard of living and improved human existence 10m40s.
• Even in everyday life, experts have made a significant impact, such as making it possible for people to travel easily and safely, for example, by getting on a plane and flying to Europe 12m50s.

Balancing Skepticism and Trust in Expertise

• Separating healthy skepticism from destructive contempt for expertise is challenging because it requires individuals to separate their emotions from the information they consume, and this can be achieved by unplugging from excessive news consumption and asking oneself honest questions, such as "Am I being fair?" 10s
• To maintain a balanced perspective, it is recommended to treat information like food, consuming reasonable quality in reasonable portions, such as reading a national newspaper, watching local news, and limiting national news to a half hour, and then questioning the motivation behind seeking additional sources 2m6s
• A suggested approach to staying informed is to focus on a few reliable sources, such as the Washington Post, The New York Times, or The Wall Street Journal, rather than cycling through various media outlets until finding information that confirms one's existing beliefs 4m42s
• When engaging with others, it is essential to ask about their sources and be cautious of individuals who claim to have read something but cannot specify the source, as this may indicate a tendency to seek out information that only confirms their pre-existing views 8m15s
• The current state of news consumption is likened to shopping, where individuals can choose from a vast array of options, and it is crucial to make informed choices, such as selecting high-quality sources, rather than opting for sensational or biased information that may be detrimental to one's understanding of the world 10m50s

The Problem of Misinformation and News Consumption

• The biggest problem with people getting their news from unverified sources, such as Facebook, lies with older adults, specifically those 55 and over, who spend a significant amount of time on the platform 42s.
• This behavior is attributed to a kind of "toddler-like, infantile narcissism" that rejects the division of labor, where people think they can do everything on their own without relying on experts, such as architects, plumbers, or doctors 2m6s.
• The idea that one person can do everything is a myth, often perpetuated by figures like Robert Heinlein, a science fiction writer, who claimed that a "real man" can build a house, change a baby, and fire a gun, but this is not how civilization has prospered 4m6s.

The Future of Expertise and Public Awareness

• Despite the current post-expertise era, it is believed that people will eventually come back to valuing expertise when they realize they cannot live without it, such as when they need medical attention or expert advice in critical situations 8m10s.
• Examples of people seeking expertise include those questioning the lack of Farsi-speaking experts in the Iran war and criticizing decisions made based on gut feelings rather than expert advice 10m5s.
• It is hoped that the current trend of rejecting expertise will eventually subside, possibly after a significant amount of human damage has occurred, such as the consequences of anti-vaccine movements or poorly informed decision-making 12m15s.
• The return to valuing expertise may be a result of people quietly seeking out scientific facts and expert opinions after experiencing the negative consequences of not doing so 14m20s.

The Threat to Trustworthy Information and Media

• The concern is that when people come out of their current state, the sources they should trust are being systematically undermined by oligarchs, such as Bezos' impact on the Washington Post, which could lead to a lack of trustworthy information 10s.
• Modern society is resilient and can absorb the stupid decisions of millions of people, but a crash can still be ugly and potentially lead to a dark age, with the system still functioning despite poor decision-making 2m6s.
• The idea that society needs to "hit bottom" before it can recover is discussed, with the example of Trump's election and administration being a potential catalyst for change, but it may take a significant impact on people's standard of living for them to realize the need for change 2m6s.

Hope for Recovery and the Role of Knowledge

• There is hope that people will eventually come out of the "tornado" of conspiracies and bad information, but it requires a significant expenditure of mental energy, and a major political movement encourages people to stay in this mindset for political purposes 4m30s.
• The importance of holding on to knowledge and science is emphasized, with the idea that people can still get out of the current situation and come together as fellow citizens, and that challenges ahead may bring out the better selves of individuals 8m40s.
• The role of books and written work in capturing the essence of the current period and serving as a warning about potential breakdowns is discussed, with the idea that these works can be a signal in the noise and provide valuable insights for future generations 10m50s.

Conclusion and Resources

• To follow the work of Tom Nichols, who writes about Iran and other topics, people can check out his articles in The Atlantic, where he is a staff writer, and also find him on social media platforms such as X and Blue Sky, where he is known as radiofreeTom 10s.
• Tom Nichols has written a book titled "The Death of Expertise" in 2017, which is still considered relevant and worth reading or revisiting 1m30s.
• New episodes of The Gray Area are released every Monday and Friday on various platforms, including YouTube, Apple Podcast, and Spotify, featuring interviews and discussions on culture, technology, politics, and more 2m6s.
• Viewers can engage with the content by commenting below the video and supporting the journalism by becoming a member of the Vox community on Patreon at patreon.com/vox 2m40s.