Trump’s 2024 Election Win — and What’s Next | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

Trump's Re-Election and Political Landscape

• President Trump was re-elected in the US presidential election, winning both the electoral and popular votes, with a close margin of 51-49, indicating that half of Americans voted against him 25s.
• The popular vote win creates more legitimacy for Trump's presidency, and the fact that there was no significant internal or external interference in the election is notable 1m1s.
• Unlike in 2020, Trump did not challenge the legitimacy of the outcome, and Democrats, including Kamala Harris, conceded quickly, recognizing Trump as the president 1m24s.
• The Republicans have taken the Senate, have a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and are likely to take the House, allowing the Trump Administration to pursue its agenda on tariffs, taxes, immigration, and other issues 2m3s.
• Americans voted on the direction of the country, with over 70% disagreeing with the current direction, making it difficult for the incumbent to win 3m7s.
• Vice President Kamala Harris's inability to articulate what she would do differently from the Biden Administration was seen as a significant issue in her campaign 3m46s.
• Harris's response to the question of what she would do differently from Biden was seen as the worst possible answer, and she was unable to recover from it 3m51s.
• Harris did move some of her policies in a more centrist direction but failed to explain or disassociate herself from previous policies 4m11s.
• Many people felt that Harris did not represent change, despite being younger and different, as they believed her policies were similar to the existing ones, leading to dissatisfaction with the United States' direction 4m19s.
• Every developed democracy that had an election this year voted against their incumbents, with Canada likely to follow suit and remove Trudeau, while developing countries like India and South Africa have also seen changes in their governments 4m38s.
• Mexico is the only notable country that had an election this year and returned the same party, with the Moren party and AMLO still seen as outsiders against the existing power of oligarchs and business 5m3s.
• The global trend of voting against incumbents, combined with high inflation, immigration issues, and disinformation, contributed to Trump's expected win in the 2024 election 5m36s.

Disinformation and the Media Landscape

• The key issues driving the election, in descending order of importance, were inflation, immigration, and disinformation, which have been seen in elections around the world this year 7m16s.
• Disinformation has made it challenging to have a national debate on policies and issues, with many people believing false information about the inflation rate and unemployment 6m41s.
• The spread of disinformation has led to fractured narratives and truths that don't align with reality or accuracy, with statements like Elon Musk's "you are the media now" contributing to this issue 7m48s.
• Trump views mainstream media, including CNN, MSNBC, and Fox, as "fake news" because they do not align with his ideology, and instead considers Twitter X and citizen journalists as "real news" 8m40s.
• Mainstream media has issues, such as being overly focused on their own interests, clicks, and news, and being more politicized, but at least their journalists have expertise and training 9m21s.
• Citizen journalists, on the other hand, tend to have stronger biases, lack professional training, and often fail to properly cite sources and provide accurate information 10m27s.
• Many verified citizen journalists on social media are actually bots, anonymous, or bad actors who spread disinformation for their own purposes 10m57s.
• The spread of misinformation is a significant concern, as many educated people in the US believe false information about the political system, such as the claim that large numbers of non-citizens vote in the US 11m33s.
• This misinformation is often promoted by influential figures, such as Elon Musk, who has actively worked to spread the lie about non-citizen voting 12m15s.
• The spread of misinformation can have serious consequences, such as the false claim that Trump called for Liz Cheney to be executed, which was taken out of context and spread by many Democrats and Harris supporters 12m30s.
• The use of information in service of a political agenda is damaging to democracies, creating an unsustainable trajectory where people can no longer distinguish truth from fiction 13m21s.
• This environment is fueled by the abundance of information available, with analysts like those at Eurasia Group making up a tiny fraction of the information people digest, particularly in the run-up to a major election 14m41s.
• The lack of trust in media, elites, and institutions is a result of this environment, making it a deeply dangerous place to live in 15m22s.

Elon Musk's Influence and US-China Relations

• Elon Musk's potential purchase of Truth Media was discussed, with speculation that it could happen, although it's unclear what it would mean if it did 15m33s.
• It's unlikely that Donald Trump would be able to continue owning and posting on Truth Media as president, given the unprecedented nature of the situation and the potential implications for the rule of law 15m42s.
• Elon Musk's $75 million investment in favor of Trump is seen as a smart strategic political bet, potentially paying off better than any other made by a billionaire or oligarch in the United States 16m22s.
• Musk's support for Trump is believed to have been influenced by Joe Biden's decision not to invite him to the electric vehicle summit, reportedly due to Tesla being a union shop 16m42s.
• Elon Musk is in a unique position to help formulate and distribute the values of the United States, given his hundreds of millions of followers and his relationship with the President of the United States 17m20s.
• Elon Musk has strong business interests in China, including developing artificial intelligence with Chinese scientists and manufacturing and selling Tesla vehicles in the Chinese market 18m32s.
• Elon Musk would not want a decoupling between the US and China, and he may have a lot of influence over US tech policy, especially since Trump did not have a technology policy in his first term 18m55s.
• Elon Musk may be able to help determine who is appointed to key technology positions under Trump and what kind of regulations, subsidies, and stimulus will be enacted by a Trump Administration for technology 19m26s.
• Elon Musk's own companies may benefit from a Trump Administration's technology policies, and he may be able to facilitate a more functional relationship between the US and China in advanced technologies 19m41s.
• Trump has a strong view on wanting to enact stronger tariffs on China, and Elon Musk may be able to help facilitate a deal on this issue with China, which is facing serious economic challenges 20m7s.
• Trump's America First policy means more capital and jobs in the United States, and he wants to use the power of the dollar and the size of the American market to get other countries to nearshore with the Americans 20m23s.
• Trump has said he wants to see 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports, and it is untested whether Elon Musk will be able to help facilitate a deal on this issue with China 20m55s.
• Elon Musk's potential to help China with a specific proposition could make him a highly influential person globally, but if he fails, he may face significant challenges in his business dealings in China 21m20s.
• The dynamics between Elon Musk, the US, and China will be an interesting development to watch, with many moving pieces in the global geopolitical landscape 22m1s.

Trump's Foreign Policy: Ukraine and Russia

• Following Trump's election win, Zelenskyy reached out to him and was complimentary, but the future of US foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine, remains uncertain 22m21s.
• Zelenskyy is a skilled communicator who has been actively promoting his cause, and Trump has acknowledged his efforts, but Trump also believes the US is spending too much on Ukraine 22m41s.
• Trump has expressed his desire to end the war in Ukraine, claiming he can do so quickly, and is likely to call Zelenskyy and Putin to propose a freeze on the conflict and subsequent negotiations 23m37s.
• Trump's plan involves Russia occupying the territory it currently holds, but ceasing to bomb the rest of Ukraine, and Ukraine accepting the situation, with the US potentially cutting off aid to Ukraine or imposing more sanctions on Russia if the proposal is not accepted 24m20s.
• The outcome of Trump's proposed plan is uncertain, and it remains to be seen whether Zelenskyy will be willing to accept the terms 24m56s.
• In a Trump administration, it would be difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept a limited ceasefire or a freezing of the conflict, as saying yes could lead to him losing power and undermining his position with many Ukrainians who have been fighting against the Russians 25m10s.
• If Ukraine says no to a ceasefire, it would be easier for them to do so, but if they say yes, it could lead to Putin demanding more concessions, such as Ukraine being disarmed and not joining NATO 25m35s.
• Trump may not consult with Europeans before contacting the Russians, and even if he does, he may not worry about coordinating a united policy with them, unlike Biden who would not negotiate with Putin without the Ukrainians and Europeans being on board 26m10s.
• The Europeans may need to take a more united front in response to Trump's actions, but it is unclear whether they will be able to do so, especially with some leaders like Victor Orban in Hungary being more inclined to work with Trump 27m8s.
• The outcome of the German elections and the stance of the new German Chancellor could also impact the European response to Trump's policies, as well as the popularity of leaders like Georgia Maloney in Italy who may shift their support away from Ukraine and towards Russia 27m36s.
• The fragmentation of European support for Ukraine could have significant consequences for frontline states in Europe that see Russia as an existential threat, such as Poland, the Baltic states, and the Nordic states 28m13s.
• European leaders are highly concerned about the potential consequences of Trump's actions and the impact on their relationships with the US and Russia, with this issue being their top priority 28m43s.

Trump's Foreign Policy: Israel and the Middle East

• A recent Jerusalem Post survey showed that over 60% of Israelis prefer Trump, while 12% prefer Harris, indicating a significant gap in support for the US ally, largely due to Trump's strong pro-Israel stance during his presidency, including the Abraham Accords and recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory 29m24s.
• Trump's first trip as president was to the Middle East, visiting Saudi Arabia and Israel, which has contributed to his strong relationship with Israel and its leaders 30m4s.
• There is still room for Biden to negotiate a settlement between Israel and Hezbollah, potentially within the next two weeks, as both sides are close to an agreement 30m22s.
• The Israelis, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, are not looking to destroy Hezbollah but rather to push them back and stop the fighting, as a larger conflict would cause significant damage to the Israeli economy 30m47s.
• Netanyahu has already taken steps to degrade Hezbollah's leadership and military infrastructure, which could be seen as a narrow win 31m11s.
• The situation in Gaza is different, with no expected change in Israel's policy, and the humanitarian crisis for Palestinians living in Gaza is likely to worsen, especially with the Israeli Knesset voting to declare UNRWA, the UN agency responsible for infrastructure and humanitarian aid, as illegal 31m26s.
• The potential for building infrastructure and governance in Gaza is being unwound, and there is no move towards a two-state solution or independent governance for the Palestinians 32m5s.
• Iran is a significant question, with Trump criticizing Biden for constraining Israel's response to Iranian strikes, and Jared Kushner seeing this as an opportunity for Israel to rid itself of the Iranian nuclear threat once and for all 32m27s.
• There is a big question about whether Trump will get the US and Israel to take action against Iran while Biden is still president or if he will wait until he is president to coordinate a military response 33m28s.
• The likelihood of an expanded military confrontation between the US and Iran is relatively high, and Trump may believe that the Iranians are a "paper tiger" that can be easily taken care of 33m52s.
• Trump previously ordered the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani, and the Iranian response was minimal, leading some to believe that Trump wanted to take even harder action against Iran 34m2s.
• The Iranians have been involved in interfering in the US election and have tried to assassinate Trump and Mike Pompeo, which could lead to a Trump administration feeling the need to "hit the Iranians back pretty hard" 34m44s.
• If the US were to take action against Iran, it could lead to higher oil prices due to Iran's ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and prevent oil from being transited globally 35m25s.

Trump's Potential Second Administration and Cabinet

• It is unlikely that Mark Milley, the former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will be appointed to Trump's cabinet, as he has recently called Trump a "fascist" 35m56s.
• Many people who were in the previous Trump administration now consider Trump an enemy, and it is mutual, which could lead to Trump going after them as president 36m10s.
• Trump may hold a grudge against people he thought were loyal but turned against him, and may launch investigations or influence media to go after them 36m36s.
• Trump's cabinet is likely to consist of "adults" who are capable of doing their job but will not be independent, as Trump wants to maintain control 37m0s.
• In a potential second Trump administration, loyalty will be a crucial factor in selecting cabinet members, unlike in the first term when Rex Tillerson was appointed as Secretary of State despite not being aligned with Trump's America First agenda 37m14s.
• Howard Lutnick, who was involved in Trump's campaign and has spent a lot of time with him, may have a good chance of becoming the Secretary of Treasury 37m59s.
• Linda McMahon, a close friend of Trump's and former CEO of the World Wrestling Federation, may be appointed as the Secretary of Commerce 38m16s.
• Several individuals are being considered for the Secretary of State position, including Bill Hagerty, a former ambassador to Japan, and Rick Grenell, the former acting head of National Intelligence and Ambassador to Germany 38m29s.
• Mike Waltz, a member of Congress, is also being considered for a potential role, possibly as Secretary of Defense 39m16s.
• Mike Pompeo, who was slow to endorse Trump, may not be considered for a role due to loyalty concerns 39m22s.
• The Department of Justice, FBI, and IRS may be politicized or weaponized in a second Trump term, with loyalty being a key factor in selecting the Attorney General 39m43s.
• Bill Barr, who was a conservative but not a Trump loyalist, may not be acceptable as Attorney General in a second Trump term 39m54s.
• JD Vance, who was selected as VP, may not have as much power as expected, as Trump will not tolerate someone with their own star power working for him 40m21s.
• In a second Trump administration, there may be multiple centers of power competing for influence in areas that Trump is not particularly interested in 40m46s.

The Global Order and US Foreign Policy Under Trump

• A second Trump administration would look very different from the first one, with the US continuing to be the most powerful country globally, having the reserve currency, the most powerful military, producing the most energy, and dominating the field of artificial intelligence 40m59s.
• Despite the US's powerful position, the global order is in deep disarray due to an absence of global leadership, which will be felt more strongly in a Trump "America First" administration 41m48s.
• Many US allies share interests and values, including a commitment to democracy, rule of law, multilateral architecture, collective security, and free trade, but the recent election suggests that the American people and the president-elect do not accept these values 42m11s.
• US allies must recognize that they may still have shared interests with the US but no longer share values, and must adapt to this new reality 43m8s.
• Trump's view on global politics is centered on deal-making, regardless of a country's internal political system, and he prefers to make deals unilaterally rather than in a multilateral setting 43m37s.
• The absence of global leadership and the rejection of multilateralism by the US will lead to increased uncertainty, volatility, and danger in the coming years 44m27s.
• The challenges facing the world are increasingly global and systemic, requiring collective action and leadership, but the US is unlikely to provide this leadership under a second Trump administration 44m11s.