Fighting Election Fiction, Palantir's Record Results | Bloomberg Technology

Palantir and US Election Day

• Palantir shares are on track for their biggest jump since February, driven by revenue growth and unwavering AI demand from corporate America and the public sector, with the company's market cap at $114 billion 1m22s.
• The company's success is attributed to its connection with implementing Large Language Models (LLMs) and finding the right pivot, leading to strong momentum on the government side and defense tech companies on the commercial side 2m0s.
• Palantir has done particularly well in the US due to its data lineage and ontology, but there are concerns about its diversification and reliance on the US government, with a note suggesting a rush to spend budgets from the US government perspective 2m31s.
• The company's international business, which accounts for over 30% of its revenue, is a concern due to heightened geopolitical tensions and the controversy surrounding its CEO 3m4s.
• Palantir currently trades at a premium multiple, but sustaining this momentum is uncertain, with international growth being a key factor 3m22s.

US Election Day Overview

• It is election day in the US, with polling showing a close race, and turnout is expected to be a crucial factor in determining the outcome 3m43s.
• Over 83 million people have already cast their votes, and the focus is on seven key battleground states in the Rust Belt and Sunbelt, where candidates have been campaigning heavily 4m23s.
• The outcome of the election may be uncertain, with a warning that it may be a case that is not yet known 4m59s.
• The outcome of the presidential election is uncertain, with no clear indication of who will reach 270 electoral votes, and it may take days to determine the winner 5m1s.
• Both candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, made closing remarks, with Trump trying to position himself as the change candidate and Harris seeking to turn the page on what she calls a dark part of American politics 5m37s.
• Trump is expected to vote in his home state of Florida, despite being a convicted felon, as New York law allows convicted felons to vote and Florida recognizes this 6m2s.
• Kamala Harris is in D.C. and will be attending her election night party at Howard University, with nothing left for either candidate to do but wait for the tally to come in 6m15s.

Market Reactions and Tech Implications

• Equity markets are higher, with cap tech stocks leading the way, indicating that the markets are ready for the election to be over and for some of the uncertainties to be resolved 6m43s.
• The outcome of the election may have implications for the tech industry, particularly in terms of regulatory issues, with potential challenges in areas such as national security, antitrust, and the semiconductor industry 7m21s.
• The composition of Congress will also have an impact on regulation, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and the standing impact of the IRA 8m24s.
• The outcome of the election may affect the electric vehicle industry, with a Democratic sweep potentially leading to more regulation, while a Republican sweep may lead to less regulation 8m55s.
• The American people have spoken through sales, with Tesla doing well, but Ford and GM's EV sales being down, which may indicate that the public may not be in favor of more regulation 9m0s.
• The semiconductor industry is a key area of focus, with potential challenges in terms of future policy, including building in the U.S. and importing and exporting from China 9m40s.
• Tesla is one of the leading points contributors to the NASDAQ, along with NVIDIA, which is leading the way 9m32s.
• The development of AI and chips in the US is considered a long-term national security bet that will take time to materialize, with a potential timeline of 10 to 15 years 9m51s.
• The US government's subsidies and support for the chips sector building in the US are not a concern, as it reduces reliance on Taiwan and South Korea and brings production to the US, although it may increase production costs 10m28s.
• The increased production costs in the US could lead to inflationary pressures and monetary policy discussions 11m3s.

Elon Musk and the Pennsylvania Sweepstakes

• NXP's earnings have been underwhelming due to issues with the car industry, a slowdown in automotive customers, and weak industrial demand, contributing to the downside on the NASDAQ 100 11m18s.
• A Pennsylvania judge rejected a request to halt Elon Musk's million-dollar sweepstakes, which was contested by Donald Trump's team on the grounds that it violated state lottery laws and consumer protection laws 12m13s.
• The judge decided that the sweepstakes was not a lottery, but rather an employment contract for spokespeople, and therefore did not violate state laws 13m5s.
• Although the DA may continue to pursue damages, the emergency injunction motion is largely moot since the giveaway is over and Elon Musk has stated that no more money will be given away 14m14s.
• Elon Musk's attempt to move the case to federal court was unsuccessful, and the case was ultimately decided in his favor 14m24s.

Tech's Role in US Politics

• The involvement of tech heavyweights like Elon Musk in the US election has been significant, with some arguing that their impact began long before the 2024 decision 15m0s.
• The current age of tech began in the 1980s with the desktop computer, and now we are in the third act in terms of AI and the space race 15m28s.
• Silicon Valley's players, many of whom are still the same as they were in the 1980s, started becoming politically active in the 1980s and engaged with the government in terms of regulation, investment, and the idea of government as a customer 15m59s.
• Elon Musk might take a leading role in the administration if Trump gets in, and we are getting more transparency about the roles of tech leaders, possibly due to social media and their self-identification 16m21s.
• The power of tech is now being seen, and previously, the PayPal Mafia functioned with a kind of oath of silence in terms of their political views, but now we are seeing how much someone like Elon Musk can influence narratives 16m54s.
• An endorsement from a technology leader like Musk can have some impact on the electorate, as seen in the 1992 election when Clinton received an endorsement from Silicon Valley, which helped shift the mood somewhat 17m50s.
• Technology is a priority for both campaigns in the selection, and candidates competing for Silicon Valley votes and endorsements means it is a win-win for Silicon Valley regardless of who is in the White House 18m46s.
• The electorate is becoming more aware of the power of big tech, and people like Elon Musk have helped add to the need for more transparency, moving the process to be more transparent inadvertently 19m38s.

Other Tech News and Election Focus

• The discussion also touched on other tech-related topics, including Apple's investment in Indonesia, Nintendo's slashed outlook, and Amazon's commitment to building a data center campus 20m0s.
• A nuclear plant in Pennsylvania is set to be powered by Talen, despite the top US energy regulator rejecting a special deal for the company 20m57s.
• Apple is planning to pitch an investment for an Indonesian factory to make products, as part of a bid to lift Indonesia's ban on iPhone 16 sales over a domestic manufacturing requirement 21m6s.
• The discussion is shifting to separating election fact from fiction, with a focus on a story about Polymarket, a predictions betting platform 21m25s.
• People are lining up to cast their votes, and big tech is leading the charge, with Bitcoin on the higher side, potentially as a proxy for a potential Trump administration 22m49s.

Market Updates and Polymarket Controversy

• Palantir is showing resilient AI demand, with a 22% increase in numbers, particularly strong growth in the United States 23m11s.
• Super Micro Computer is expected to show a 200% increase in sales for the fiscal quarter, but investors are more interested in the company's transparency and the ongoing DOJ investigation 23m29s.
• Bitcoin has seen double-digit moves and quadruple the volatility in seven out of the last eight trading days, potentially as a proxy for a Trump win 23m50s.
• Polymarket has been paying US-based influencers to promote election betting, despite being barred from letting anyone in the country use the tool to place wagers 24m8s.
• The platform has been reaching out to US-based social media influencers to pay for their content, and has seen a rise in partners, despite not being supposed to target the US 24m59s.
• Polymarket's counterargument is that they just want eyeballs on their service, even if US users are barred from making trades, with 99% of users just viewing the website as a news source 25m51s.
• However, the way the data is presented on social media can be misleading, making it look like poll data, which is not supposed to include information from outside the US 26m20s.
• The platform's predictions can be seen as manipulative, as they look like poll data, but are actually based on trades from people outside the US 26m43s.

Election Misinformation and Public Trust

• The 2024 US election is marked by amplified divisive rhetoric, making it challenging to separate fact from fiction, with many looking to verify the accuracy of information 27m11s.
• Danielle Lee Tomson from the Center for an Informed Public notes that social media on election day can be overwhelming, making it hard to discern a true signal from the noise 27m35s.
• US cybersecurity officials are trying to reestablish trust with the voting base, and research suggests that misinformation and distrust will be a significant factor in the 2024 election 28m11s.
• The American public, particularly on the Republican right, has been primed to mistrust election data, with many convinced that the election will not be safe despite officials' assurances 28m42s.
• The "three C's" – convincing the public that the election is not safe, encouraging people to collect evidence of wrongdoing, and contesting election results – are expected to play out online 28m51s.
• Issues in the 2024 election include fraudulent voter registration forms and alleged glitches in voting machines, but these issues tend to have remedies 30m2s.
• Danielle Lee Tomson's organization is focused on gathering data on how rumors spread on platforms to inform policy change and help election officials gain and maintain the trust of the American public 30m38s.

US Election Security and Foreign Interference

• Former Chief of Staff Kiersten Todt notes that while election interference fears are present, the US is resilient and safe, with a focus on alleviating fears of election interference 31m57s.
• Election security is considered national security, and election officials and stakeholders have never been more prepared to administer a safe, secure, and resilient election 32m28s.
• After the 2016 election, elections became critical infrastructure, meaning they are crucial to how society functions, and additional resources have been allocated to state and local officials to prepare for and administer elections 32m42s.
• The federal government has worked closely with state and local officials to conduct physical assessments of election systems and run almost 200 exercises to prepare for different scenarios that may come into play 33m15s.
• Elections are not connected to the internet, giving them a different level of resilience, and 97% of registered voters are in jurisdictions with paper records, providing a backup and resilience for audits 33m32s.
• U.S. intelligence agencies have issued a joint statement reporting unprecedented efforts by adversaries, with Russia at the forefront, to disrupt the election 33m54s.
• Foreign adversaries are conducting malign influence operations to undermine the confidence of Americans in their democracy and pit Americans against each other 34m19s.
• The federal government is working across agencies to put out joint announcements and get information out as quickly as possible, which is a big difference from previous years 34m40s.
• The biggest vulnerabilities that voters may face are not cybersecurity, but rather people's confidence in the system, and it is essential for individuals to believe in the resilience of the nation and its ability to conduct safe and secure elections 35m22s.
• State and local election officials are the trusted sources for information, and voters can find secure information on websites, including vote.gov 35m45s.

Trump's Voting Day Activities and Comments

• Former President Donald Trump has cast his vote in Palm Beach, Florida, and commented on the election, stating that it seems like people have shown up in force 36m5s.
• Former President Trump expressed his frustration with the US election process, stating that it should be over by 10:00 if paper ballots were used, which would be 8% of the cost of using machines 37m8s.
• He mentioned that France switched to paper ballots due to issues with mail-in voting and was able to count 37 million votes by 10:00 in the morning 37m56s.
• Trump stated that he is hearing it may take a long time to get the results in certain states, despite being up by a lot in those states 38m19s.
• He plans to have a special group of people at Mar-a-Lago and 4000-5000 people at the convention center, assuming he wins 38m37s.
• Trump mentioned that he would normally declare victory at the convention center around 10:00 or 11:00, but is unsure if that will happen this time 38m49s.
• He believes he has a substantial lead, with more Republicans voting than Democrats, but notes that the winner needs to be officially called 39m3s.
• Trump stated that he wants people to come into the country legally and wants strong borders, which he believes is the biggest issue in the campaign 39m40s.
• He also mentioned that he wants to be inclusive and allow people to come into the country, but not allow criminals, drug dealers, or terrorists 39m49s.
• Trump personally believes that the border is the number one issue, but will see how it pans out 40m25s.
• He stated that he doesn't have to tell his supporters that there will be no violence, as they are not violent people 40m44s.
• Trump plans to spend most of his time at Mar-a-Lago and will be going to the office in West Palm with Melania 41m9s.
• Former President Trump is visiting workers and mentions that he has been hearing that they are doing very well in Georgia and everywhere else, although he may regret making that statement later 41m36s.
• Trump states that he has not prepared a speech, but is able to make one on short notice, and if he wins, he knows what he's going to say 42m17s.
• Trump encourages Republicans to stay in line and vote, while Democrats can leave if they want to, and mentions that there are tremendous Republican lines 42m35s.
• Trump claims that he has no pressure whatsoever and is winning his cases, including the biggest one in Florida 43m8s.
• Trump thinks that this might be his last campaign, and if so, he would be sad but fulfilled, and is expecting a big victory 43m26s.
• Trump has already assembled a transition team, but doesn't want to talk about it until he finds out how the election goes 43m41s.
• Trump's terms for Iran are that they cannot have a nuclear weapon, and he would like them to be a successful country 44m3s.
• Trump feels confident with the Secret Service, who have stepped up their security measures, and thinks they should have done a better job in the past 44m14s.
• Trump believes that his team is incredible and has run the best campaign, but in order to make that stick, they have to win 44m59s.
• Trump is confident in his team, many of whom are the same players from his previous campaigns 45m21s.
• Trump thinks it's ridiculous to suggest that he is not confident, and recalls an experience at one of Oprah's last shows 45m40s.