TWiST News: Startups & Wealth Taxes, The Bitcoin Boom, and The OpenAI Browser | E2051

Jason and Alex kick off the show 0s

• Norway has proposed an exit tax, according to BDO Global, instead of following the path of a 1% origination tax, which would require entrepreneurs to pay taxes before making money 10s.
• The exit tax implies that entrepreneurs have to leave the country before starting a company, as the tax is imposed when they exit the country 47s.
• This weekend's startups is brought to you by Squarespace, which allows users to turn their ideas into new websites, and OpenPhone, which creates business phone numbers that work through an app on smartphones or desktops 52s.
• Dev Squad offers an entire product team for the cost of one US developer, plus 10% off at DevSquad.com 1m24s.
• Jason Calacanis is an angel and early-stage investor in Silicon Valley, Austin, and New York, and co-host of the show, along with Alex Wilhelm, a deep knowledge expert on technology and finance spaces 1m46s.
• Alex Wilhelm is looking forward to overeating and becoming a couch potato during the holiday week and will be unavailable on Thursday and Friday 2m35s.
• Jason Calacanis spent time in Upstate New York, watching a Giants game and tailgating, a tradition he has been a part of since his dad had season tickets in the 1970s 2m48s.
• The discussion starts with a personal anecdote about visiting the MetLife Stadium, which is considered one of the worst stadiums in the US, and will be hosting the World Cup, giving a bad impression of America and New Jersey 4m3s.
• The Philadelphia Eagles won and are now 9-2, while the Giants lost, and the Patriots are struggling after their dynasty ended 5m9s.
• The New England Patriots are compared to the Astros, implying they cheated to achieve their success 5m35s.
• The main topics of the show include an interview with Dune's CEO about the impact of taxes on startup formation in Europe 5m39s.
• The show will also discuss MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin trade, analyzing Michael Saylor's strategy and whether it's genius or doomed to fail 5m50s.
• The lightning round will cover OpenAI building a browser, the status of Blue Sky, the upcoming IPO cohort for next year, and the cost of AI in human terms, if time permits 5m56s.

Impact of taxes on startup formation and Norway's economic background 6m7s

• The conversation revolves around taxes in Norway, specifically the concept of taxing unrealized gains, and its impact on startup founders. 6m9s
• Startup founders can become incredibly wealthy on paper when their company is private, but they may not have access to that wealth, and paying taxes on it can put them in a difficult situation. 6m28s
• The idea of taxing unrealized gains has been discussed in America, particularly for wealthy individuals who can take loans against their stock without selling it, thus avoiding taxes. 6m49s
• In most cases, startups fail, and the equity becomes worthless, but for successful companies, the founders may face taxes on their unrealized gains. 7m32s
• Norway's economic background is unique, as the country found oil in 1969 and managed its resources well, implementing an 80% tax on oil companies' bottom line to benefit the Norwegian people. 8m46s
• This move led to the creation of a $1.7 trillion Sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, which has recently announced plans to engage in venture capital and private companies. 9m57s
• Frederick Hagå, CEO of Dune, explains that Norway's situation is different from other countries, and the country's wealth tax and taxes on unrealized gains work differently in the Nordics and the EU. 8m28s

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Norway's wealth tax implications and policy changes 11m53s

• Norway's oil fund owns approximately 1.5% of all stocks in the world, making it a massive entity, and was set up in the 1990s as a financially responsible way to manage the country's oil revenue surplus 11m53s.
• The fund has a trillion dollars and is shared among five million people, resulting in a significant amount of money per individual citizen 12m28s.
• The fund's profits are used to fund state operations, with a rule that only 3% of the fund's profits can be spent, ensuring its sustainability 13m3s.
• Norway's economy is heavily reliant on the oil industry, but there is a growing recognition of the need to diversify and develop new companies beyond oil 13m39s.
• A Norwegian startup, a crypto data tool, was founded in 2018 and initially struggled to gain traction, but eventually raised funding and grew rapidly, raising $80 million in Series A and B funding 13m58s.
• Norway has a wealth tax, which affects individuals with significant wealth, including the founders of the crypto startup 15m27s.
• Startups with a strong balance sheet full of cash may face a wealth tax bill, which can be a significant burden, especially for private companies where the tax is calculated based on the balance sheet rather than the market cap 15m32s.
• The wealth tax rate in Norway was increased from 0.85% to 1% for individuals with a net worth of less than 20 million kroner, with a deduction of around 2 million kroner for those with less than 2 million kroner 17m25s.
• The wealth tax is calculated based on the ownership share of the company, and the tax bill can be substantial, with an example given of a company with 80 million kroner in the bank and a 50% ownership share resulting in a tax bill of around 800,000 kroner 16m27s.
• The introduction of the wealth tax and the increase in dividend tax rates in Norway led to an effective doubling of the wealth tax, making it difficult for companies to pay the tax without taking out dividends 17m44s.
• As a result of the increased tax burden, Norway lost 100 of its top 400 taxpayers, accounting for 50% of the wealth of the top 400, over a period of two years 17m57s.

Exodus of top taxpayers and the paradox of Norway's wealth tax 18m9s

• Many top taxpayers are leaving their home countries, often moving to Switzerland, due to wealth taxes and tax treaty reasons, allowing them to pay a lower wealth tax in Switzerland 18m13s.
• In Europe, taxes are typically paid in the country where one is domiciled, whereas in the United States, citizens are still required to pay federal taxes even if they leave the country and live elsewhere 18m39s.
• The United States is a significant talent and capital magnet, attracting people from around the world, unlike many European countries 19m4s.
• Norway has a wealth tax, despite having a massive amount of wealth from oil reserves, which accounts for less than 2% of the country's budget 19m32s.
• The corporate tax rate in Norway is 22%, and increasing it to 24 or 25% might not have driven people to leave the country, but the government's strong socialist ideology prioritizes taxing the rich 19m38s.
• The Norwegian oil fund provides essential services like healthcare and education, but the abundance of oil wealth has led politicians to assume that money is plentiful, making them less concerned about the impact of wealth taxes on the country's population 19m51s.

Wall of shame for tax critics 20m14s

• A Wall of Shame has been created by the Socialist left party, featuring newspaper articles of people criticizing the tax system, including a person who criticized the tax code and is now on the wall. 20m50s
• The person on the Wall of Shame had written opinion pieces stating that they couldn't pay the tax, which was many times their net income, and no one could explain how they were supposed to pay it. 20m26s
• To pay the tax, the company would have to give shareholders a dividend of the money they just invested, which would then have to be prorated, or do a special dividend just to the founders. 21m16s
• The situation becomes complicated, and the person would essentially have to do a dividend or sell shares, which is considered absurd, especially since they haven't made any money. 21m43s
• The issue is a personal wealth tax, which affects the person's paper wealth, not the corporate account, and is based on unrealized gains. 22m9s
• The tax bill would be 1.1% of the person's personal wealth, which wouldn't impact the corporate account, and is why some people are leaving the country. 22m13s
• If someone owns 30% of a unicorn, they would have to pay a significant tax bill, which would require them to sell a large number of shares every year, leading to dilution of their ownership over time. 22m36s
• The tax is based on the book value of the company, which could include the cash, revenue, and goodwill, and would require the person to pay tax on a large amount, even if they haven't made any money. 23m14s
• The complexity of the tax system is considered unnecessary and self-inflicted, and it's suggested that taxing people on borrowing would be a simpler solution. 23m51s
• A proposed wealth tax could be improved by allowing individuals to take a margin loan against their unrealized capital gains and pay a small tax on the loan, rather than paying taxes on the gains themselves 23m54s.
• This approach would enable individuals to build wealth while still having some liquidity and paying taxes on a regular basis.
• Norway has proposed an exit tax, which would require individuals to pay taxes on unrealized gains when they leave the country, rather than implementing a more reasonable adjustment to the wealth tax 24m52s.
• The exit tax could accelerate people leaving the country, especially entrepreneurs who may be deterred from starting companies due to the potential tax burden 25m38s.
• The tax could result in individuals having to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in unrealized gains, making it more feasible to shut down a company or relocate to a different country 25m59s.
• The situation highlights the importance of creating a favorable business environment, as entrepreneurs are likely to choose locations with more favorable tax policies 26m16s.
• The concept of "there there" refers to the core brilliance of a location, such as Silicon Valley, which attracts entrepreneurs and capital allocators 26m31s.
• Other locations, such as Texas, Sweden, Italy, or Singapore, may offer more favorable environments for entrepreneurs and could potentially attract companies and talent 26m45s.
• Some entrepreneurs, such as Eduardo Saverin, co-founder of Facebook, have relocated to Singapore and given up their citizenship to take advantage of more favorable tax policies 27m4s.
• The moral of the story is to make tax policies simple, easy, and fair to attract and retain entrepreneurs and companies 27m18s.

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• OpenPhone provides features such as syncing with HubSpot, AI-powered call summaries, and automated responses to ensure no calls are missed 28m13s.
• The platform also allows users to port existing phone numbers at no extra charge 28m23s.
• OpenPhone offers a 20% discount for the first six months for new customers, available at openphone.com with the code "Twist" 28m30s.

Dune Analytics' revenue growth and new index product launch 28m41s

• Dune is doing well, with revenue growth and a lot of money in the bank, despite a few rough years previously, and the company has stayed lean and humble in its upbringing 28m45s.
• The company's success is partly due to its belief in crypto and the potential for a new regime in the US that is pro-crypto and allows more experimentation 29m30s.
• Criticisms of crypto include not producing actual products that consumers love and use, and breaking rules, but there may be a middle ground between strict regulations and a lack of rules 29m45s.
• Dune launched its annual conference in Bangkok, featuring Vitalik on stage, and launched an index product that tracks on-chain data and adoption 30m34s.
• The index product provides a metric that is a composite of transaction fees, allowing users to see how much people are actually using the chain 30m53s.
• The index shows that people spent $600 million on writing to blockchains in the last 30 days, which translates to a $6 billion run rate, comparable to what people spend on AWS accounts or cloud services 31m11s.
• However, there is a counterargument that some of this activity may be "painting the tape" or creating false trades to manipulate prices, and Dune's analysis may be able to pull out what is known as "wash trading" 31m45s.
• Dune's index can look into this issue and provide a more accurate picture of adoption, such as by analyzing the 365-day chart 32m6s.
• A metric is used to track the performance of blockchains, which is a composite of three metrics: transaction fees, transfer volume, and transaction count, providing a sense of how these things are doing on the blockchain 32m26s.
• The transfer volume metric filters out transactions that go to the same entity on both sides and only takes the net effect of a transaction, showing the real value transfer happening on the blockchain 32m50s.
• The metric provides information on how much value is being transferred on the blockchain, with the current run rate being around 8.7 trillion, which is comparable to Visa's total transfer volume last year 34m11s.
• The blockchain with the highest transfer volume is Bitcoin, followed by Tron, which has a significant amount of stable coin activity, particularly in Turkey, Middle Eastern, and Asian countries 33m24s.
• The transfer volume on Tron is largely due to stable coin trading, where people are essentially trading digital dollars pegged to the US dollar 33m48s.
• The system is working on breaking down the transfer volume by product category, such as DeFi, stable coins, and other categories, to provide more insight into the types of transactions happening on the blockchain 35m13s.
• The system also plans to provide more information on the revenue side of things, including paid tiers, and will post updates on the Dune metrics page 35m34s.
• Norwegian salmon is available in Tokyo, and Santa Barbara uni is available in other locations, with both being exceptional and literally flown by each other on planes, highlighting the importance of branding. 35m58s
• Alex is the main character of the moment, and Frederick was the main character last week, but this week the main character is once again Michael Saylor. 36m26s
• Bitcoin has gone on a huge runup. 36m44s

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• DevSquad can help startups find top-tier talent, manage timelines, and maintain quality, which can be a significant challenge for founders, especially before raising Series A or B funding 37m3s.
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Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy's Bitcoin investment strategy 38m15s

• The current state of the crypto industry is concerning, with many projects dumping on retail investors and lacking actual products that perform a function for people 38m16s.
• In the early days of crypto, around 2011-2012, most founders were "crazy dreamers" and "fringe kind of anti-establishment grifters" who failed to produce competitors to established companies like Airbnb, Uber, and Google 38m43s.
• Bitcoin has been an exception, having not been hacked or compromised despite being a system that could be vulnerable to attacks or government intervention 39m22s.
• Governments have accepted Bitcoin, and it has not been banned or heavily taxed, although this could still happen in the future 39m54s.
• The current administration appears to be pro-crypto, with some individuals, like Brian Armstrong, helping to vet people for the next administration 40m35s.
• The crypto industry's lack of self-regulation is a concern, but there are examples of industries like the movie and video game industries that have successfully self-regulated 40m49s.
• The recent surge in Bitcoin's value is based on regulatory change, and it is unclear whether this change will be beneficial for the industry 41m4s.
• Michael Saylor's bet on Bitcoin has looked good recently, with the cryptocurrency's value increasing significantly 41m24s.
• Michael Saylor's company, MicroStrategy, has been acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin, and he has consistently advised people to sell everything they own and invest in Bitcoin 41m39s.
• MicroStrategy is a software company that has become a vehicle for Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy, which involves selling debt and shares to acquire more Bitcoin, with the company's latest purchase being 55,500 Bitcoins for $5.4 billion in cash 42m2s.
• The company's purchases are made on a large scale, with the latest purchase being made over a five-day period from November 18th to November 24th, with an average price paid of $97,000 per Bitcoin 42m41s.
• The Bitcoin price increased by 10% during this period, possibly due to MicroStrategy's large purchase, which may have caused a supply and demand issue in the market 43m25s.
• MicroStrategy's plan is to raise $42 billion in capital over the next three years, with $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed-income securities, which will be used to buy more Bitcoin 44m35s.
• The company's strategy of buying more Bitcoin and then selling more stock at a premium price to buy even more Bitcoin has been described as "making their own magic" and has raised concerns about its sustainability 45m26s.
• Some people have compared MicroStrategy's strategy to a Ponzi scheme, citing concerns that if the company hits a bump in the road, such as a 30-50% Bitcoin pullback, the whole thing could blow up 45m31s.
• MicroStrategy has 386,000 Bitcoins, which is worth $36.7 billion at the current price, less than half of their $82 billion market cap 46m16s.
• The company's software business is shrinking and is not worth much, with a run rate of around $400 million and a valuation of around $1-2 billion 47m1s.
• The majority of MicroStrategy's value comes from its Bitcoin holdings, with $36.7 billion in Bitcoin and around $79 billion in market cap minus the software business value 47m18s.
• Buying MicroStrategy stock would essentially mean buying half the amount of Bitcoin one could buy directly, without control or agency over the Bitcoin 47m33s.
• It is unclear why anyone would pay twice as much for Bitcoin by buying MicroStrategy stock, especially when they could buy Bitcoin directly through Coinbase or Robinhood 48m0s.
• One possible explanation is that some accounts may not be able to purchase Bitcoin directly, even through an ETF, and buying MicroStrategy stock is the best way to get Bitcoin exposure 48m32s.
• However, this explanation is not valid if one can buy an ETF or Bitcoin directly through a brokerage account or cryptocurrency exchange 48m41s.

Market irrationality and risks associated with Bitcoin investments 49m1s

• MicroStrategy's strategy to sell stock, raise debt, and buy Bitcoin may seem genius, but it relies on maintaining a large premium, which is likely due to market irrationality and may eventually stop, allowing people to short MicroStrategy's stock 49m2s.
• Michael Saylor's arbitrage involves using the market cap to get more loans, which are collateralized by MicroStrategy stock or Bitcoin, but the specifics of the collateralization are unclear 49m35s.
• If the $5 billion loan is collateralized by Bitcoin and the price drops 50%, Michael Saylor may face a margin call, which could lead to liquidation of assets 49m57s.
• The loan has a 0% coupon but a 55% conversion premium, and MicroStrategy has to return $4.5 billion without paying interest, with a conversion rate of 1.5 shares per note 50m47s.
• The discussion raises questions about the structure of the loan, the interest paid, and what happens when the loan matures, particularly if the price of Bitcoin is lower than it is today 51m36s.
• The strategy is seen as overly complicated and potentially flawed, with excessive cleverness that may ultimately fail, as people can simply purchase Bitcoin themselves rather than through a corporate entity 52m21s.
• Michael Saylor's approach to investing in Bitcoin is questioned, with the suggestion that he could simply buy Bitcoin with his personal wealth and hold onto it, rather than pursuing a more complex strategy 52m42s.
• Bitcoin conferences are also questioned, with the suggestion that they may not serve a practical purpose beyond allowing people to socialize and express their enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency 52m51s.
• Bitcoin is seen as a reliable way to store and transfer money, although it may not be the cheapest option, and its value is largely based on the fact that a large number of people believe in it 53m3s.
• The value of Bitcoin, like that of traditional currencies, is based on a collective belief system, and its worth can vary greatly depending on the context in which it is used 53m31s.
• The example of a $10,000 bill being used to start a fire by a premodern tribe is used to illustrate the idea that the value of a currency is not inherent, but rather based on the value that people assign to it 53m44s.
• The people who bought Bitcoin early on have been rewarded for their belief in the system, which has now gained widespread acceptance and value 54m14s.
• There is a possibility that some people are shorting the stock, which could be contributing to the current market dynamics and allowing Michael Saylor to pursue a more audacious strategy 54m30s.
• The spread between Michael Saylor's holdings and the market cap of Bitcoin should not be more than 10% 54m47s.

Crypto wealth diversification and new investment structures 55m1s

• Litecoin was initially considered the "silver to Bitcoin's gold" and is also a proof-of-work cryptocurrency that runs on a decentralized compute system, raising questions about its potential for growth if Bitcoin's value increases 55m1s.
• Companies like Tesla hold significant amounts of Bitcoin, with Tesla reportedly having $765 million in Bitcoin that they moved last month, and it is unclear whether they sold or continue to hold the coins 55m31s.
• Other companies are also holding Bitcoin as part of their treasury, with some allocating 1-5% of their investments to the cryptocurrency, which is seen as a relatively small and acceptable allocation 56m10s.
• Sam Bankman-Fried, currently behind bars, and Michael Saylor have both had run-ins with the government, with Saylor facing charges from the SEC and paying significant penalties and settlements 56m36s.
• There is a desire for crypto to become legalized and for a way to be created to allow crypto wealth to flow into a coin that can be invested in startups, potentially providing a way to unlock and extend crypto wealth 57m19s.
• The idea is to create a coin that can be invested in startups, allowing individuals to diversify their crypto wealth and potentially earn returns through startup investments, with the possibility of trading the coin if needed 57m54s.
• The goal is to provide a way for crypto wealth to be invested in startups, either crypto-focused or not, and to create a fluid system that allows for easy entry and exit 58m21s.
• A hypothetical scenario is presented where an individual owns 1% of a $45 million venture capital fund, valued at $450,000, and wants to liquidate a portion of it, but faces difficulties due to the illiquidity of the asset 58m39s.
• The scenario highlights the challenges of liquidating a portion of a venture capital fund, as there is no fluid way to do so, and the individual would have to find a buyer, pay high legal expenses, and potentially sell at a low price 59m11s.
• In contrast, if the asset were tokenized and traded on a platform like Coinbase, it could be easily bought and sold, allowing for intermediate liquidations and increased liquidity 59m31s.
• The concept of a venture capital firm that trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week, is discussed, and how it could provide liquidity to investors and allow them to realize gains from successful investments 59m55s.
• The Arc family of funds, specifically Arc VX, is mentioned as an example of a fund that invests in venture capital, and how it could potentially be tokenized and traded on a platform like Coinbase 1h0m14s.
• The discussion also touches on the idea of a closed-end fund, similar to one offered by Kathy Woods, which allows investors to withdraw a limited amount of funds each year, and how it differs from traditional venture capital funds in terms of incentives and fees 1h0m42s.
• The importance of financial structures being open to creative solutions, disclosures, responsibility, and education is emphasized, and how it could lead to a more efficient and liquid market for venture capital investments 1h1m57s.
• The market is currently offering a 2X multiple on Bitcoin holdings, indicating a significant increase in value 1h2m12s.

OpenAI's new browser project and its impact on search 1h2m20s

• OpenAI is building a browser that integrates ChatGPT and is working on search products, which is seen as a move contrary to Google's dominance in the search market 1h2m27s.
• The browser project has attracted big names like Darren Fiser, who worked on Chrome, and Shivakumar Vataman, who was part of Google's search advertising business 1h2m39s.
• There are two main reasons why OpenAI is building a browser: to intercept searches and analyze web pages on the device side 1h2m52s.
• By analyzing web pages on the device side, OpenAI can do speech-to-text, text-to-speech, and save pages, among other things, without needing permission from the content owners 1h3m21s.
• The browser will allow users to remix and analyze copyrighted materials that OpenAI cannot index in its main index, such as content from Instagram or LinkedIn 1h4m16s.
• The OpenAI browser will store every single LinkedIn or Instagram page a user looks at in their personal local language model (LLM), allowing for a more personalized experience 1h5m6s.
• The browser will run a local version of ChatGPT and LLM on the user's device, merging it with the language model provided by OpenAI 1h5m17s.
• The move is seen as a potential game-changer, allowing users to do more with the content they interact with in their browser, and potentially leading to a bifurcation in how people interact with the internet 1h5m10s.

Increasing reliance on browsers and Bluesky's potential 1h5m51s

• Open AI's goal is to build an operating system, but instead of doing that, they might opt for a browser as a shortcut to control, which could potentially make the Open AI browser a significant player in the market 1h5m51s.
• Blue Sky, a platform incubated by Twitter, has seen significant growth, from 434,000 users in July 2023 to 22.5 million users currently, and it may finally be a breakout Twitter competitor or ex-competitor 1h6m33s.
• The differentiator for Blue Sky is not just that it's not X (Twitter), but also that it's Federated, allowing users to post on the platform and other places, which could be an attractive feature for users who want to avoid the anonymity and trolling on X 1h6m59s.
• Blue Sky's user base is different from Threads, with the latter being seen as the "super corporate version of X," and Blue Sky is more appealing due to its users, including authors and journalists who have left X in protest 1h7m47s.
• The reason for Blue Sky's success is not its features, but rather the users it has attracted, including those who have left X, and the platform's ease of use, such as block lists and passing them around 1h8m15s.
• Some users are drawn to Blue Sky because of the people they can connect with there, including authors and journalists who are no longer on X, making it a necessary platform to be on for those who want to stay connected with them 1h8m27s.
• LinkedIn is a platform that is being utilized by entrepreneurs and portfolio companies to share information about their businesses through threads, and its inmail feature could be improved by making it more like Gmail or Superhuman, with features such as quick keys and the ability to intercept emails 1h9m18s.
• The idea of LinkedIn having an email product, similar to what Raul was going to do, would be beneficial, allowing users to have a LinkedIn email account, such as alex.wilhelm@linkedin.com or jason.calacanis@linkedin.com 1h10m0s.
• TikTok has some positive content, including storylines and individuals who share World-positive content, but it still lacks the intellectual and powerful individuals who are mostly on X 1h10m44s.
• X has a significant issue with harassment, particularly towards left-leaning or moderate individuals, which can lead to brigades of people violently attacking or harassing users, making it challenging for people to opt-out of the platform due to these issues 1h11m7s.
• The problem with X is that as users gain popularity, they attract more detractors who spend time harassing them, and the platform needs to figure out how to address anonymity and improve the block feature to prevent this type of behavior 1h12m11s.
• One potential solution to reduce spam on X is to allow users to ban accounts that are under a year old and have fewer than 100 followers, as these accounts are often burner accounts that are used to send spam 1h12m37s.
• The current state of social media, particularly X (formerly Twitter), is a "bummer" due to the balkanization of social media platforms, making it difficult for users to engage in intelligent and challenging discourse 1h13m21s.
• The block feature on X has been changed, and some users, especially women, are concerned about not being able to block certain people as much as they had before, which is a valid concern 1h13m30s.
• However, the change in the block feature also allows users to see tweets from previously blocked accounts, even if they cannot reply to them, which can be a positive aspect 1h13m37s.
• Many users on X have backup accounts, which can be used to view tweets from blocked accounts, and this workaround is now being officially implemented 1h13m54s.
• The ability to view but not comment on tweets from blocked accounts can be a nice feature, as it allows users to see what they were previously blocked from seeing without engaging with the person who blocked them 1h14m32s.
• Despite the challenges, X is still growing, and other platforms like Threads and Blue Sky are also gaining traction 1h15m2s.
• There is speculation about whether X would hold any shares in Blue Sky, given that Twitter incubated Blue Sky in the past, which could be an interesting development if Blue Sky becomes successful 1h15m25s.

CoreWeave's IPO and the future of GPU clouds 1h15m37s

• CoreWeave is planning to go public next year with a reported valuation of $35 billion and is looking to raise an additional $3 billion, as reported by Jason Reuter 1h15m40s.
• The company is using the IPO to raise more cash, rather than as a capstone event, and this move is expected to lead to more GPU cloud companies going public 1h15m57s.
• CoreWeave is a GPU cloud company that has bought a large number of H100s, giving it an advantage, and has received significant private equity capital 1h16m17s.
• The company's success is heavily dependent on the demand for H100s and AI, making it a concentrated bet on these technologies 1h16m52s.
• The IPO prices of companies like CoreWeave are often fully priced or generously priced, which means the founders may get full value for their shares, but the stock price may trade under the IPO price for a while after going public 1h17m19s.
• This phenomenon is illustrated by the example of Robinhood, which IPO'd at $38 per share and later traded down to $8 per share before recovering 1h17m40s.
• The strategy of buying shares when they are undervalued, as seen in the case of Robinhood and Uber, is reminiscent of Warren Buffett's approach, who recently sold some of his Apple shares and built up a large cash position 1h18m10s.

Bitcoin market dynamics and predictions 1h18m22s

• Experienced Bitcoin traders are likely selling their Bitcoins at high prices, with the intention of buying them back at lower prices, as they are aware of the boom-bust cycles in the Bitcoin market 1h18m25s.
• Many savvy people in the game, including Vinnie Lingham and Chamath, believe that the price of Bitcoin will go down 30 or 40% in the next two years, but they do not know when this will happen 1h19m9s.
• The Bitcoin market has historically experienced boom-bust cycles, with significant price drops after reaching peaks, such as the 60% drop from $11,000 to $5,000 in 2019 and the 75% drop from $60,000 to $16,000 in 2018 1h19m56s.
• The current market dynamics may be similar to previous cycles, with the possibility of a significant price drop before the market recovers 1h20m24s.
• The price of Bitcoin may reach new highs, but it is uncertain whether it will reach $60,000 or $200,000 again 1h20m48s.
• The first story about Bitcoin was written in April 2013, when the price was $125, and it was considered a dangerous open-source project 1h20m59s.
• The author has been tracking Bitcoin since 2011 and made predictions about its potential, including the existence of six million coins with a total economy of $40 million 1h22m9s.
• The author's advice is to buy and hold valuable assets, as the power law can lead to significant returns, and he regrets not investing $100,000 in Bitcoin at $6 a share 1h22m26s.